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Feedback on 'Unpredictables'
Bill Wright (October 1999)
You are an incurable optimist, Michael. But then, I suppose we all have to be. Putting out a positive vision for the future might be enough to make it happen. Anything is possible. Certainly, if we fear the worst, there are plenty of people around who are willing to arrange for it to happen. I have the following predictions for Aussiecon Four (circa 2010-2015 AD) to add to your list:
A cure for diabetes will have been discovered early enough to ensure that Bill Wright survives that long.
So may it be.
I reply (February 2000):
"You are an incurable optimist, Michael. But then we all have to be...I have the following predictions for Aussiecon Four (circa 2010- 2015AD) to add to your list:
"A cure for diabetes will have been discovered early enough to ensure
that Bill Wright survives that long. "So may it be."
I have taken a more than casual interest in diabetes since my mum and sister were diagnosed with the non-insulin dependent sort.
I'm tempted to say "which cure?" My reading of these matters indicates a range of possible cures - an intelligent blood-monitoring embedded insulin pump, some transplanted cells with insulin producing genes (and immuno-suppressive drugs for you to take), immunoisolation technology (See "Scientific American" Apr.'99) allowing animal pancreatic cells to grow in your body without the problem of tissue rejection, a synthetic pancreas to be created with tissue engineering techniques and given to you, or your own pancreatic cells cultured, genetically-engineered to contain a properly-functioning insulin-producing gene and transplanted back into you.
Say 2 to 10 years. Do you fancy being a medical guinea-pig?
An interesting list of predictions to reread at Aussiecon 4. May we all be there to discuss it!
Great idea to produce a list of predictions for the next Aussiecon, which may occur sometime in the years 2010-2015 (if not before!). "WindowsTM will die." Don't care for it much, do you? I like the idea of satcons (satellite conventions) that will allow people in other areas to take part in a convention.
If we are around in 2010-5 it will be very interesting to see if your predictions are close. I did particularly like the one about the companies having to use plain English to sell their products. We can but hope!
Michael. Think I'll hang onto this and wave it about in fifteen years. I agree with some of it but I don't think you're making [enough] allowances for human nature and politics. It's been my experience with predictions that while change does move fast, it still isn't moving anywhere as fast as our belief that it does. I doubt the Martian colony and the $20 computer in that category.
I reply (April 2000):
(A192) Re: "Unpredictables." (Sep. 1999)
Never fear Lyn. If I thought the future really was predictable, I'd never have called my minizine "Unpredictables." Since the future really is unpredictable, I can relax because I won't be the only one getting it wrong!
The $20 computer should be described better in my Freeform Futurology piece.
Some interesting predictions. But will I remember to check them during Aussiecon Four? What are you doing to ensure Aussiecon Four occurs?
I reply (April 2000):
"What are you doing to ensure Aussiecon Four ---- occurs?" [Ytterbium 53. Feb. 2000]
I recognise a challenge! (Give me time to properly get over Aussiecon 3. Remind me again in 2001.)
We'll have to save this for the next 10 years and see how many of your predictions come true Michael :-)
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Last Updated: 30 June 2003