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(August 2002) Feedback on 'Evolutions'ERIC LINDSAY writes (October 1998): Computer technology is still on an exponential curve, as it has been for the past 20 years. Somewhere I still have some of the trend lines. I recall hard drives are going up 60% a year, CPU speeds double every 18 months to two years, as does memory capacity. I don't see any limits (albeit with changed technologies) for at least another 3 to 5 [computer] generations, which could mean seven to ten years of continued increases in capabilities. One problem is the cost of fabrication plants, now something over two billion US$ each (Intel just opened [plant] #15 and should open #16 soon.) Copyright © 2002 by Michael F. Green and others. All rights reserved. Last Updated: 22 August 2002 |